TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR BUY OR SELL DECISIONS IN CRYPTOCURRENCY (BITCOIN)
University Pembangunan Nasional Veteran East Java, Surabaya
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70197/jebisma.v2i2.68Keywords:
Cryptocurrency, Buy, Sell DecisionsAbstract
The purpose of this study is to determine how to provide recommendations for buy or sell decisions based on the price movements of cryptocurrency using technical analysis. This study employs a qualitative approach because the goal is to deeply and thoroughly understand the technical patterns in Bitcoin price charts to make informed buy and sell decisions. In this research, the data analysis technique used is Content Analysis. Content analysis is a research method that allows for the subjective interpretation of various types of data through a systematic classification process and the identification of themes or patterns.
In conclusion, the technical patterns identified during the period from June 2022 to October 2023 provide strong signals for buy decisions. The combination of volume confirmation, price movements above the 200-day moving average, chart patterns, breakouts, major trend patterns, and the integration of supporting theories provides a solid foundation for this analysis and reinforces the confidence that prices are likely to rise.
Downloads
References
Achelis, S. B. (2000). Technical Analysis from A to Z. Search, 77, 33–34. http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=ZproZYDvKqsC&oi=fnd&pg=PR13&dq=Technical+Analysis+from+A+to+Z&ots=AII6VIRoS2&sig=cujwHZyaCu3dAI-urVEj9ykUEm8
Akademi Crypto. (2023). Crypto Trading Guide. Percetakan Bintang.
Alsedrah*, I., & Ahmed, N. (2018). Behavioral Finance And Speculative Behavior Of Investors: Evidence From Saudi Stock Market. 604–618. https://doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2018.07.02.65
Anand, S., Chin, W. N., & Khoo, S. C. (2001). Charting patterns on price history. SIGPLAN Notices (ACM Special Interest Group on Programming Languages), 36(10), 134–145. https://doi.org/10.1145/507669.507653
Angell, G. (Ed.). (2012). Small Stocks for Big Profits. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119202998
Arief, P., & Dwi, A. P. (2019). Analisis Keputusan Investasi (Buy and Sell) Pada Perdagangan Saham Pt Indah Kiat Pulp and Paper Tbk (Inkp) Dengan Menggunakan Indikator Volume Dan Dow Theory Tahun 2017. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Pasar Modal, 02(01), 74–109. https://bitly.ws/37GXM
Ariwibowo, T. (2022). Efektivitas Analisis Teknikal Untuk Profitabilitas Cryptocurrency di Spot Market (Analisis Profitabilitas Criptocurrency di Spot Market Menggunakan Pendekatan Analisis Teknikal). Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Sistem Informasi, 4(1), 106–117. https://doi.org/10.31933/jemsi.v4i1.1154
Arroyo, J., Corea, F., Jimenez-Diaz, G., & Recio-Garcia, J. A. (2019). Assessment of Machine Learning Performance for Decision Support in Venture Capital Investments. IEEE Access, 7, 124233–124243. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2938659
Balia, S. S., Jais, M., & Chin, C. L. (2018). Predictive power of candlestick in Malaysia: reversal versus continuation patterns. International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 15(3), 235. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEBR.2018.10011599
Bamert, T., Decker, C., Wattenhofer, R., & Welten, S. (2014). BlueWallet: The secure Bitcoin wallet. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (Including Subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), 8743, 65–80. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11851-2_5
Bengtsson, M. (2016). How to plan and perform a qualitative study using content analysis. NursingPlus Open, 2, 8–14.
bitcoin. (2024). Bitcoin - Uang P2P Sumber Terbuka. Bitcoin. https://bitcoin.org/id/
Bulkowski, T. N. (2005). Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns SECOND EDITION.
Cambridge English Dictionary. (n.d.). Cryptocurrency|English Meaning. Dictionary.Cambridge.Org. Retrieved January 22, 2024, from https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/cryptocurrency
CMT Association. (2023). Three Premises of Technical Analysis. CMT Association. https://cmtassociation.org/kb/technical-analysis-three-premises/
Daniswara, D. A., Widjanarko, H., & Hikmah, K. (2022). the Accuracy Test of Technical Analysis of Moving Average, Bollinger Bands, and Relative Strength Index on Stock Prices of Companies Listed in Index Lq45. Indikator: Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Dan Bisnis, 6(2), 16. https://doi.org/10.22441/indikator.v6i2.14806
De Angelis, T., & Peskir, G. (2016). Optimal prediction of resistance and support levels. Applied Mathematical Finance, 23(6), 465–483. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2017.1297729
Deng, R., Wang, J., Dong, H., Lo, W., & Dong, H. (2023). The Implementation and Refinement of Range Breakout Strategy in Chinese Commodity Market. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences, 18(1), 27–45. https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/18/20230053
Denzin, N. K., & Lincoln, Y. S. (2011). The Sage handbook of qualitative research. sage.
Diphayana, W. (2018). Perdagangan internasional. Deepublish.
Dow Jones. (2024). DOW JONES THE ULTIMATE SOURCE FOR BUSINESS NEWS AND DATA. Dow Jones. https://www.dowjones.com/about/
Dumiter, F. C., & Turcaș, F. M. (2023). Fundamental Notions of Technical Analysis. In Technical Analysis Applications: A Practical and Empirical Stock Market Guide (pp. 1–18). Springer.
Dynand, M. R., & Kartawinata, B. R. (2018). Comparative Analysis of Cryptocurrency in Forms of Bitcoin, Stock, and Gold as Alternative Investment Portfolio in 2014 – 2017 Analisis Perbandingan Cryptocurrency Bitcoin, Saham dan Emas sebagai Alternatif Portfolio Investasi Tahun 2014 – 2017. Jurnal Sekretaris & Administrasi Bisnis, II(2), 38–51.
Edwards, R., MaGee, J., & Bassetti, W. (2018). Technical analysis of stock trends. Choice Reviews Online, 35(04), 35-2224-35–2224. https://doi.org/10.5860/CHOICE.35-2224
Edyson, A. (2020). TAHUKAH ANDA DOW THEORY? Astronacci.Com. https://www.astronacci.com/blog/read/tahukah-anda-dow-theory
Elder, A. (1993). Trading for a living: psychology, trading tactics, money management (Vol. 31). John Wiley & Sons.
Faijareon, C., & Sornil, O. (2019). Evolving and combining technical indicators to generate trading strategies. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1195, 012010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1195/1/012010
Farhan, A., Djuwarsa, T., & Purbayati, R. (2022). Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Saham PT Bank Jago Tbk dengan Menggunakan Indikator Candlestick dan Moving Average Convergence Divergence. Indonesian Journal of Economics and Management, 2(3), 517–525. https://doi.org/10.35313/ijem.v2i3.3783
Farild, M., Sawaji, M. I., & Poddala, P. (2023). Analisis teknikal sebagai dasar pengambilan keputusan dalam transaksi saham. FORUM EKONOMI: Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Dan Akuntansi, 25(4), 734–739.
Fauzi, M. (2023). Cryptocurrency : Catatan Dari Tiga Perspektif. 23(2).
Firdaus, R. G. (2021). Analisis Teknikal Saham Menggunakan Indikator RSI dan Bollinger Bands pada Saham Konstruksi. Jurnal Pasar Modal Dan Bisnis, 3(1), 15–26. https://doi.org/10.37194/jpmb.v3i1.60
Friesen, G. C., Weller, P. A., & Dunham, L. M. (2009). Price trends and patterns in technical analysis: A theoretical and empirical examination. Journal of Banking & Finance, 33(6), 1089–1100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2008.12.010
Gadallah, T. M., Fors, M. N., & Moneim, A. F. A. (2015). A new approach for combining multi-criteria trading decision models. 2015 International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management (IEOM), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1109/IEOM.2015.7093802
Garzarelli, F., Cristelli, M., Pompa, G., Zaccaria, A., & Pietronero, L. (2014). Memory effects in stock price dynamics: evidences of technical trading. Scientific Reports, 4(1), 4487. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep04487
Girikallo, A. S., Mahdalena, M., Ahmad Faqih, U., Mohammad Abdul, M., La Ode, A., Casriyant, C., I Wayan Kayun, S., Sri, A., Dwi Astarani, A., & Muflihatul, F. (2023). Buku Ajar Mikro Ekonomi.
Hartono. (2020). Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Saham Top 5 Big Capitalization Menggunakan Pendekatan Rasio Fibonacci Retracement dan Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Jurnal Ekonomi, 22(1), 63–77.
Hartono, H. (2022a). ANALISIS TEKNIKAL PERGERAKAN HARGA SAHAM PADA PERUSAHAAN PERTAMBANGAN YANG TERDAFTAR DI INDEKS LQ45 MENGGUNAKAN MA50 DAN …. Sebatik. https://jurnal.wicida.ac.id/index.php/sebatik/article/view/1929
Hartono, H. (2022b). Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Saham Pada Perusahaan Pertambangan Yang Terdaftar Di Indeks Lq45 Menggunakan Ma50 Dan Rsi Pada Tahun 2019-2022. Sebatik, 26(2), 465–471. https://doi.org/10.46984/sebatik.v26i2.1929
Hayati, M. (2016). Investasi Menurut Perspektif Ekonomi Islam. Journal of IslamicEconomics and Business), 1(1), 66–78. https://ejournal.radenintan.ac.id/index.php/ikonomika
Heinz, A., Jamaloodeen, M., Saxena, A., & Pollacia, L. (2021). Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Japanese Candlestick patterns: A statistical analysis on the S&P 500 index. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 79, 221–244.
Hull, J. C., & Basu, S. (2016). Options, futures, and other derivatives. Pearson Education India.
Jain, R., Bhardwaj, P., & Soni, P. (2022). Can the Market of Cryptocurrency Be Followed with the Technical Analysis? International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology, 10(4), 2425–2445. https://doi.org/10.22214/ijraset.2022.41760
Jearanaitanakij, K., & Passaya, B. (2019). Predicting Short Trend of Stocks by Using Convolutional Neural Network and Candlestick Patterns. 2019 4th International Conference on Information Technology (InCIT), 159–162. https://doi.org/10.1109/INCIT.2019.8912115
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking Fast and Slow. Farrar, Strauss and Giroux.
Kaiser, J. (2016). Chart Pattern in Climate Time Series Data. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3250759
Koretskiy, V. P., & Palabugin, M. V. (2022). IMPROVEMENT OF THE INVESTING POLICY IN THE STOCK MARKET BASED ON THE EVALUATION OF A SET OF MOVING AVERAGES FOR FALSE SIGNALS TO BE DETECTED. Social’no-Ekonomiceskoe Upravlenie: Teoria i Praktika, 18(3), 12–19. https://doi.org/10.22213/2618-9763-2022-3-12-19
Kumar, D., Sahoo, K., & Thakur, M. (2023). A hybrid multicategory framework for generating automated trading systems. Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience, 35(22). https://doi.org/10.1002/cpe.7746
Kumar Inani, S., Pradhan, H., Prasanth Kumar, R., & Kumar Singal, A. (2022). Do daily price extremes influence short-term investment decisions? Evidence from the Indian equity market. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 19(4), 122–131. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.19(4).2022.10
Kumar, S., Tomar, M. S., & Arora, A. K. (2023). An analysis of movements in prices of Nifty index, using relative strength index indicator. Journal of Statistics & Management Systems, 26(3), 493–504. https://doi.org/10.47974/jsms-1042
Li, S. (2017). Searching for Head and Shoulders Bottom Patterns under Directional Changes. September.
Markowski, L. (2021). The Relationship Between Trading Volume and Returns Volatility on Warsaw Stock Exchange (pp. 43–55). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73667-5_3
Marshall, C., & Rossman, G. B. (2014). Designing qualitative research. Sage publications.
Meliza, J., & Sadalia, I. (2021). CRYPTOCURRENCY. Journal of Trends Economics and Accounting Research, 1(3), 82–86. https://journal.fkpt.org/index.php/jtear
Merriam-Webster. (n.d.). Cryptocurrency Definition & Meaning. Merriam-Webster.Com Dictionary. Retrieved January 22, 2024, from https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/cryptocurrency
Merriam, S. B., & Tisdell, E. J. (2015). Qualitative research: A guide to design and implementation. John Wiley & Sons.
Miles, M. B., & Huberman, A. M. (1994). Qualitative data analysis: An expanded sourcebook. sage.
Murphy, J. J. (1999). Technical analysis of the financial markets. In Pennsylvania Dental Journal (Vol. 77, Issue 2). http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20599625
Najmudin, N. (2018). EKSISTENSI PROFITABILITAS STRATEGI INVESTASI MOMENTUM DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA. Jurnal Personalia, Financial, Operasional, Marketing Dan Sistem Informasi.
Ng Ee Hwa. (2007). Trendlines: Supporting the Price Movement. 28–29.
Nison, S. (2001). Japanese candlestick charting techniques: a contemporary guide to the ancient investment techniques of the Far East. Penguin.
NUR ASTUTI, W. (2021). PENGARUH SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE TERHADAP VOLUME PERDAGANGAN SAHAM (Sensus pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Sub Sektor Food & Beverages yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Universitas Siliwangi.
Ong, E. (2016a). Technical Analysis For Mega Profit. Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
Ong, E. (2016b). Technical Analysis For Mega Profit (Hc). Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
Prihatiningsih, P., Duriany, E., Sunindyo, A., & Kodir, M. A. (2022). Strategi Investasi Saham Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Dengan Analisis Teknikal. Jurnal Aktual Akuntansi Keuangan Bisnis Terapan (AKUNBISNIS), 5(2), 198. https://doi.org/10.32497/akunbisnis.v5i2.4060
Pring, M. J. (2014). Technical analysis explained: The successful investor’s guide to spotting investment trends and turning points. McGraw-Hill.
Rabbani, H. A., Elektro, F. T., Telkom, U., Elektro, F. T., Telkom, U., Dinimaharawati, A., Elektro, F. T., Telkom, U., Saham, A., Teknis, B. A., & Pendahuluan, I. (2023). Program Prediksi Harga Saham Menggunakann Analisis Teknikal Dengan Pola Candlestick Dan Indikator Teknikal. 10(1), 772–777.
Ramyar, R. (2008). ESSAYS ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS. 34(2019), 51–79. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/1189/
Rustyawati, D., & Artikel, R. (2021). Cryptocurrency: Sejarah dan Perkembangannya INFO ARTIKEL ABSTRAK. JIB-Jurnal Perbankan Syariah, 28–35.
Samsul, M. (2006). Pasar modal dan manajemen portofolio.
Scott, G., Carr, M., & Cremonie, M. (2016). Literature Review: Technical Analysis - Modern Perspectives. Capital Markets: Market Efficiency EJournal. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:157730032
Setiadi, G., Putri, O. A., Ardilla, G., & Azmi, Z. (2022). Analisis Teknikal Saham Menggunakan Indikator Rsi Dan Bollinger Bands Pada Saham Berbasis Komoditas Timah Dan Nikel. Accountia Journal (Accounting Trusted, Inspiring, Authentic Journal), 6(01), 47–53. http://jurnal.umberau.ac.id/index.php/accountia/article/view/611
Setiawan, E. P. (2020). Analisis Potensi dan Risiko Investasi Cryptocurrency di Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi, 19(2), 130–144. https://doi.org/10.12695/jmt.2020.19.2.2
Setiyono, T. A., & Prospek, S. P. (2022). Strategi Penilaian Prospek Saham Telekomunikasi dengan Indikator RSI dan Stochastic. 05(02), 189–199.
Tamm, E. (2020). “ Technical Analysis and the Creation of an Automated Trading Strategy ” “ Tehniline analüüs ja automaatse kauplemisstrateegia loomine .”
Tandelilin, E. (2010). Portofolio dan Investasi: Teori dan aplikasi. Kanisius.
Tharp, V. K., Chabot, C., & Tharp, K. (2007). Trade your way to financial freedom. McGraw-Hill New York, NY, USA.
Thomsett, M. C. (2018). Timing with Well-Selected Technical Signals. In Options Installment Strategies (pp. 49–65). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99864-0_4
Wendt, L. (1982). The Wall Street Journal: The Story of Dow Jones & the Nation’s Business Newspaper. Rand McNally. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=zo-xAAAAIAAJ
Wu, C., Chou, S., & Liaw, H. (2014). A trend based investment decision approach using clustering and heuristic algorithm. Science China Information Sciences, 57(9), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11432-013-4985-4
Yang, Y. (2023). The Impact of Loss Aversion on Peoples Behavior in Different Markets. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences, 14(1), 345–352. https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/14/20230851
Yuliansyah, & Sukedarsana, I. K. (2019). Analisis Fundamental Nilai Intrinsik Dan Nilai Pasar Saham Sebagai Alat Bantu Dalam Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi. Jurnal Ilmiah ESAI, I(1), 02.
Zakamulin, V. (2016). Moving Averages for Market Timing. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2854180
Zapranis, A., & Tsinaslanidis, P. E. (2012). Identifying and evaluating horizontal support and resistance levels: an empirical study on US stock markets. Applied Financial Economics, 22(19), 1571–1585. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2012.663469
Zhu, J., Wan, Y., & Si, Y.-W. (2018). A Language for Financial Chart Patterns. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 17(05), 1537–1560. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219622018500347
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Hartsa Fayi Yumna, Muhammad Taufiq, Anisa Fitria Utami

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.


